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1、李錄價(jià)值投資的哲學(xué)和理念有何變化？

2、李錄和其他價(jià)值投資者之間有什么區(qū)別？

3、投資者應(yīng)該是專才還是通才？

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4、價(jià)值投資者新人應(yīng)該接受什么樣的教育？

5、李錄如何回顧看待自己過往的人生決策？

1、好公司的特點(diǎn)和估值方式

2、好公司獲得持續(xù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的因素有哪些？

3、李錄在挑選要投資的公司時(shí)考慮哪些因素？

4、投資中，如何看待公司管理層?

1、今天市場(chǎng)的情況像過往當(dāng)中的哪一個(gè)階段呢？

2、如何應(yīng)對(duì)宏觀環(huán)境的各種危機(jī)?

3、如何理解亞洲尤其是中國(guó)市場(chǎng)？

4、新興科技是否會(huì)吸引李錄這樣的價(jià)值投資者？

5、如何看待美國(guó)亞裔群體的生存現(xiàn)狀？

Live streaming from Columbia business School in New York city. My name is Bruce. Welcome to the final session of the 13th Columbia China business conference. Home to value investing, Columbia business school is at the forefront of the theoretical development and practices of value investing.

這里是紐約哥倫比亞商學(xué)院的現(xiàn)場(chǎng)直播，我是Bruce。歡迎各位出席哥倫比亞中國(guó)商業(yè)論壇的最后一場(chǎng)討論。哥倫比亞大學(xué)商學(xué)院是價(jià)值投資的發(fā)源地，也是價(jià)值投資理論發(fā)展和實(shí)踐的前沿。

Given the ever changing global dynamics and market uncertainties, what are the potential advancements on unwavering fundamentals of value investing? How should practitioners realize about investing in China?

面臨瞬息萬(wàn)變的全球局勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)的不確定性，價(jià)值投資的基本思想和方法有何可能的改進(jìn)？實(shí)踐者如何在中國(guó)實(shí)現(xiàn)價(jià)值投資？

Joining us today are Professor Bruce Greenwald and Mr. Li Lu.

今天參加我們論壇的嘉賓是Bruce Greenwald教授和李錄先生。

Professor Bruce Greenwald is the founding director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing at Columbia business school. It"s a leading voice in value investing.

Bruce Greenwald教授是哥倫比亞學(xué)商學(xué)院哥雷厄姆和多德投資法海爾布倫中心的創(chuàng)始主任，他是一位價(jià)值投資的主要倡導(dǎo)者。

Mr. Li Lu is the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital, a multi-billion dollar investment firm that primarily focus on long-term investment opportunities in Asia and the US. He"s a distinguishing alumnus of Columbia, and Mr. Li Lu currently serves as a member of the board of trustees of Columbia University. Mr. Li Lu has in-depth knowledge about the Chinese market. His insights are trusted by investment legends like Buffett and Munger.

李錄先生是喜馬拉雅資本的創(chuàng)始人兼董事長(zhǎng)，喜馬拉雅資本是一家管理著上百億美元資產(chǎn)的投資公司，主要專注于亞洲和美國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期投資機(jī)會(huì)。李錄先生也是哥倫比亞大學(xué)的杰出校友，他在哥大同時(shí)獲得了三個(gè)學(xué)位，他現(xiàn)在還是哥大董事會(huì)的成員。

Professor Greenwald routinely won plaudits for his classes and has trained a generation of value investors, including Mr. Li Lu himself. Mr. Li Lu has in-depth knowledge about the Chinese market. His insights are trusted by investment legends like Buffett and Munger.

Bruce Greenwald教授在哥大商學(xué)院開辦的價(jià)值投資課程一直受到學(xué)生們的追捧，并培養(yǎng)了一代的價(jià)值投資者，其中就包括李錄先生本人。李錄先生對(duì)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)有著深入的了解，他對(duì)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的洞見得到了巴菲特和芒格等投資傳奇人物的認(rèn)可。

Now, imagine yourself stepping into the most overcrowded investment classroom at one of the best business schools across the globe. Welcome professor Greenwald and Mr. Li.

現(xiàn)在，想象你自己身處世界上最好的商學(xué)院最擁擠的投資課堂上，讓我們歡迎Bruce Greenwald教授和李先生。

一

李錄價(jià)值投資理念與哲學(xué)發(fā)展

I think this is gonna be a rare privilege for everybody. I"ve only known Li Lu for more than 20 years and not only is he a great investor, but he"s a great conversationalist. So why don"t we just start out by talking about how your investment philosophy has changed? Because value investing is, after all, always an evolving field, since you began the field, literally, I think I would say, 25 years ago? 20 years ago?

(Mr. Li Lu: More like 28, hahaha.)

How time flies! So how has it evolved? How have you been influenced by people like Charlie Munger and so on? Go ahead.

這次對(duì)談對(duì)大家來(lái)說(shuō)都是非常難得的機(jī)會(huì)，我認(rèn)識(shí)李錄二十多年了，他不僅是一個(gè)頂級(jí)投資人，也是一個(gè)很好的談話對(duì)象。首先我想請(qǐng)你跟大家分享一下，從你接觸和學(xué)習(xí)價(jià)值投資到實(shí)踐的這20多年中，伴隨著價(jià)值投資理念的進(jìn)化，你的投資哲學(xué)與理論發(fā)生過怎樣的變化呢？像查理·芒格等這樣的價(jià)值投資者是如何影響你的？

Well so before I started, I just want to, first of all, thank you for all the organizers of this great conferences. I mean, look at all the speakers, they are just really unbelievable. The quality of the student has dramatically improved since I was the student there, so thank you for all for that wonderful work of putting together this great conferences.

首先我想感謝這次大會(huì)的主辦者（哥大商學(xué)院中國(guó)學(xué)生會(huì)）！我看了大會(huì)的議程，這次論壇受邀嘉賓的規(guī)格之高令人難以置信，說(shuō)明今天哥大商學(xué)院學(xué)生的質(zhì)量與我當(dāng)年相比已經(jīng)有了戲劇性的提升！非常感謝你們做出的所有工作，才將所有的要素匯聚在一起，辦成了這么棒的一個(gè)論壇。我非常的榮幸和高興受邀來(lái)跟Bruce Greenwald教授一起參加這場(chǎng)討論。

In fact, I got into this field really because of Professor Green Greenwald’s class. I think that, you know, basically you got Buffett to come to speak to a student rally, roughly 28 years ago. And it was really that first lecture that really got me into this field. So thank you so much.

我走上價(jià)值投資之路，其實(shí)就是因?yàn)楫?dāng)時(shí)聽了布魯斯·格林伍德教授的一堂價(jià)值投資課。我還清楚記得，那是在28年前，布魯斯·格林伍德教授請(qǐng)來(lái)巴菲特先生給學(xué)生上課。就是因?yàn)槲耶?dāng)年在您的課堂上聽了巴菲特先生的演講，從此走上價(jià)值投資這條路。所以我太感謝教授您了。

And of course, I later, as a business school student, took all of the courses that Professor Green Greenwald offered and learned a great deal, made a lot of money too, so thank you.

當(dāng)然，后來(lái)我就轉(zhuǎn)到哥大商學(xué)院學(xué)習(xí)，修完了布魯斯·格林伍德教授教的所有課程，學(xué)到很多東西，這讓我賺了很多錢。所以我特別感謝您，布魯斯·格林伍德教授，當(dāng)然也感謝商學(xué)院。（笑）

Yeah, So the philosophy is that, it is you know uh relatively simple, the practice is really hard. So I wouldn"t say the philosophy really evolved all that much for me. Before I got really exposed to value investing through Buffett"s lecture at Professor Bruce Greenwald"s class, I think my whole approach to life was pretty much a set along similar lines, and so there"s not much of a jump for me.

價(jià)值投資知易行難，道理很簡(jiǎn)單，實(shí)踐卻很難。我不能說(shuō)價(jià)值投資理論本身發(fā)生過多大的變化。其實(shí)在我聽巴菲特先生在您價(jià)值投資課所做演講之前，我在生活中為人處世的基本原則就和價(jià)值投資的想法是基本一致的，因此對(duì)我本人而言，并沒有什么巨大的變化。

The idea of uh buying something at a discount for something that really worth more, is simply intelligent. So I would say that almost all intelligent investing involves some kind of value investing. And now the difference is it is that your focus on value evolves over time. And to different individuals, they tend to focus on different areas of that.

這種以較低的價(jià)格、買有更高價(jià)值的東西的做法，本身就很聰明，我認(rèn)為所有聰明的投資方法都會(huì)某種程度地涉及價(jià)值投資的理念，差別就在于人們對(duì)價(jià)值的關(guān)注點(diǎn)會(huì)隨著時(shí)間演進(jìn)變化，不同的價(jià)值投資者對(duì)價(jià)值的關(guān)注點(diǎn)不太一樣。

For me, when I first started as a value investor, this is now 27 or 28 years ago, when I bought my first stock, I don"t really know much about business. I know I was born and raised in China during the Cultural Revolution. There was not much of a private business or open market economy back then. So I have to learn everything anew.

對(duì)我來(lái)說(shuō)，自28年前我開始了價(jià)值投資。其實(shí)當(dāng)我購(gòu)買第一只股票的時(shí)候，對(duì)商業(yè)的了解并不多。我在中國(guó)出生，并成長(zhǎng)于六七十年代，那時(shí)并沒有多少私人的商業(yè)行為和開放的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)，因此，我需要從頭學(xué)習(xí)商業(yè)相關(guān)的所有內(nèi)容。

So at the beginning, obviously look for value primarily on the balance sheet, in the classic style of Benjamin Graham, looking for a cigarette butt, looking for the last puff basically, looking for statistically cheap businesses, and ignore what the business really is, and that served me well.

一開始，我主要是踐行本杰明·格雷厄姆的經(jīng)典風(fēng)格，埋頭在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表里尋找一些有價(jià)值的“煙蒂股”（企業(yè)價(jià)格低于流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值的股票）。巴菲特把這種投資策略比喻為撿煙頭——像在路上找人家丟棄不要的煙頭，短得你只能抽上最后一口了，但是價(jià)格便宜啊，免費(fèi)，不用花一分錢。（那時(shí)的我）基本上只是在找這種統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義上的便宜的生意，雖然我靠這個(gè)過的還不錯(cuò)，但卻忽略了股票背后生意的本質(zhì)是什么。

And that over time I evolved into understanding smaller businesses.And because I was just intensively curious about how businesses run, so much so, I actually involved into health funding or co-creating a dozen or so early-stage start-up companies. And that experience has taught me a lot about how business run, what constitute a good or bad or mediocre businesses.

但隨著時(shí)間的推移，我對(duì)商業(yè)是如何運(yùn)作的有了強(qiáng)烈的興趣，我開始逐漸更理解相對(duì)小一些公司的商業(yè)模式。實(shí)際上，我參與投資或共同創(chuàng)建了十幾個(gè)早期創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。這段經(jīng)歷教會(huì)了我很多關(guān)于商業(yè)運(yùn)作的知識(shí)，并了解到哪些要素構(gòu)成一個(gè)好生意、差生意或平庸的生意。

And so over time I evolved into looking for really good businesses, small maybe, but really good business. and then that lead me to look for good businesses in Asia, and eventually for businesses with enduring competitive advantage with some long growth trajectory ahead.

后來(lái)，我開始更多地關(guān)注那些小而美的生意，而這一切都引領(lǐng)我去發(fā)掘在亞洲市場(chǎng)的好投資機(jī)會(huì)。最終，我找到了一些有持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的公司。

And so the places we"re looking for value, evolves over time. But the basic philosophy has pretty much remained the same. It"s just our core competence expanded over time.

我們尋找價(jià)值投資的重點(diǎn)，隨著時(shí)間在不斷演進(jìn)，但背后的基礎(chǔ)邏輯其實(shí)是永恒的，變化的是我們的核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力在不斷擴(kuò)展。

Now I"ve been very fortunate to be influenced at the very beginning by the investment giant, Buffett and Munger.And later on, I was really really lucky, and it was really just a stroke of luck, that you can"t even make it up in fictions, that I strike a good connection with Charlie Munger, and became an investor in 2003 or 2004, and we"ve been partners. Since then, basically, he has been a mentor, an investor, a business partner and a great friend all this years.

我特別幸運(yùn)的是能夠在職業(yè)發(fā)展早期就受到投資大師巴菲特和芒格的影響。后來(lái)的我更是非常非常幸運(yùn)，獲得了小說(shuō)都不敢寫的一系列眷顧——我得以和查理·芒格先生建立很好的關(guān)系，并在2003或2004年的時(shí)候，芒格先生成為了我的投資人，直到現(xiàn)在我們?nèi)匀皇呛献骰锇椤２粌H如此，除了投資人與商業(yè)伙伴，芒格先生也一直是我持續(xù)多年的良師益友。

And for many many years we"ve been, we have dinner every Tuesday night. That"s my version of a "Tuesday night with Charlie" every week(similar to "Tuesday afternoon with Morrie"). That lasted for years until just right around the pandemic, and we talk a lot more.

多年以來(lái)，我們每周二都會(huì)共進(jìn)晚餐，聊很多話題，這成為了我個(gè)人版本的“與芒格相約周二晚”。這一慣例持續(xù)了很多很多年，直到疫情來(lái)臨。

So obviously I had a great deal of influence by him. But I have to say that the greatest influence from Charlie, was really beyond just the investment. He was more of a role model and the way he conducted himself in real life. Now, I think for every profession, everybody, it is wonderful to have models in life. And often we find role model among the eminent dead, because it is safer.

顯而易見，查理·芒格對(duì)我影響至深。他對(duì)我最大的影響，其實(shí)遠(yuǎn)超投資領(lǐng)域。他的為人處世，一直是我的榜樣和標(biāo)桿。我認(rèn)為每個(gè)人的生命里能有一個(gè)榜樣是特別好的。通常我們會(huì)在逝去的大師里尋找榜樣，因?yàn)檫@樣更安全。

It is pretty risky to pick a role model who is still alive and there is always a risk of disappointment.But in my case, I got really really lucky in the sense that my role model never failed me and instead continued to inspire me right into his 97th year.

的確，尋找一個(gè)活著的榜樣是有讓自己失望的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但對(duì)我而言，我非常非常幸運(yùn)。因?yàn)槲业陌駱釉谒?7歲的人生中從不曾讓我失望，并且還能一直激勵(lì)我。

And so mostly it is really basically his attitude towards life and his ability to keep equanimity in a sense, in the face of ups and downs, successes or setbacks, and I witness quite a bit of them over the 17 years or so we"ve been working closely, and to maintain that rational composure, common sensical approach to all problems, investment or life. That is extraordinarily hard. And it is a bit of, I guess, against every natural tendencies.

他對(duì)我的影響更多的是他的生活態(tài)度，面對(duì)生活的波瀾而保持榮辱不驚的能力。在過去超過十七年的緊密合作中，我見證了他不少的起起落落，但他的生活哲學(xué)與能力，總能讓他時(shí)刻保持鎮(zhèn)定。不論面對(duì)任何困難，關(guān)于投資或者人生，要維持理性、邏輯和鎮(zhèn)定是極難的，這多少有點(diǎn)反人性。

I"ve really watched closely, up close and in person how Charlie had conducted himself and it is in their regard that he is probably the most influential person in my life. And I have been very, very lucky in that regard.

而我有這個(gè)殊榮能近距離地觀察他是如何處事待人，的確非常幸運(yùn)，我也受他影響最深。

But then what other dimensions do you do things differently today than other investors who are less successful?

你自己如何評(píng)估，相較于其他投資人或者價(jià)值投資者，你的投資方法有什么樣的獨(dú)特之處？

I don"t spend my time study a hundred people doing that that way. We spend most of our time studying industries, studying specific companies. We"re looking for the ones who are really successful, trying to answer what really makes them successful? Can that success be continued?

And so and most of the time but we don"t have an answer. We just keep studying and keep at it. And sometimes we study for years and years before you see. we really get it and then we will wait for price to come to our striking zone and a lot of the time they don"t. And so that makes our selection very, very difficult. so when we do select them, we tend to really own them for very very long time.

絕大多數(shù)時(shí)候，其實(shí)我們并沒有答案。我們只是持續(xù)地研究，學(xué)習(xí)。直到經(jīng)過了多年不為人知的研究學(xué)習(xí)之后，我們會(huì)真正懂得其中的關(guān)鍵，并等待價(jià)格來(lái)到我們能買入的“擊球區(qū)”。但很多時(shí)候價(jià)格并不在合適的區(qū)間，這讓我們的選擇變得非常非常困難。但一旦我們選擇買入后，我們會(huì)很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間地持有這些公司。

Because the business is where they are really good and we really fully understand and are very rare. And how do you mean when you really do you understand, so anything that we would own we would buy a lot more as they go down.

因?yàn)檎嬲齼?yōu)質(zhì)而我們又足夠了解的生意是極其稀有的。當(dāng)我們真正了解一家公司時(shí)，這意味著什么呢？這意味著任何我們選擇持有的標(biāo)的，當(dāng)其價(jià)格下跌時(shí)，我們會(huì)持續(xù)購(gòu)入。

How do you start?

你們具體會(huì)怎樣開始？

Yeah, if they go, that"s 50% is 60% of the brand we buy more. So that really gives you a measure of our definition of whether we understand them.

當(dāng)價(jià)格下跌百分之五十甚至百分之六十時(shí)，我們會(huì)更大規(guī)模的增持。這樣的舉動(dòng)，就是我們對(duì)一個(gè)公司是否足夠了解的界定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

Do you prefer to be a generalist or a specialist investor? And would one work better in the Chinese market than the other?

作為投資者，你傾向于當(dāng)一個(gè)通才還是專才？在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)做投資，哪一種能把投資做的更好？

Well in a sense, you always want to be a generalist, uh, in terms of a student of businesses. And you’re interested, you know, you have to have to be good at this game, you have to have the innate intensive curiosity about the business, all kinds of businesses. It doesn’t mean you’re going to really get to the bottom of it. Oftentimes you don’t if you’re honest with yourself.

從某種方面來(lái)講，作為學(xué)習(xí)商業(yè)的學(xué)生，最好是方方面面都有所了解，如果你想要做一個(gè)好的投資者的話，你必須要對(duì)各種各樣的行業(yè)有著強(qiáng)烈的好奇心，這并不是說(shuō)一定要對(duì)每個(gè)行業(yè)都要有非常透徹的了解。坦白地講，這常常是做不到的。也很難對(duì)每個(gè)行業(yè)那么了解，我們還是要對(duì)自己誠(chéng)實(shí)一些。

But by the time you really get into the companies you really decided to invest, you really better become a true specialist. And to the point you really know,hopefully better than anybody in the world you can find, including the top management team, the top management team, because they manage the company, they tend to be, uh deeply personally vested in their own biases, and may not be able to look at the business as objectively rationally as you do.

但是你一定要有這樣的好奇心，當(dāng)你決定投資一家公司的時(shí)候，你一定要成為這家公司的專才，要非常了解這家公司，要比世界上任何一個(gè)人都要了解這家公司，甚至比他們的高管更加了解，因?yàn)楦吖茉谌粘９芾砉ぷ髦卸紩?huì)帶上自己的認(rèn)知偏見，有的時(shí)候可能身在此山中沒有辦法跳出來(lái)看。所以你必須要成為對(duì)于這家公司真正的了解，把你自己全身心的投入其中，這樣你才能更加有信心的投資這家公司。

So that’s a really test, so you want to be a true specialist in the company you chose to really invest. But you want to be a generalist always of business in general. So that your core confidence, your circle of confidence constantly evolving and enlarging over time.

所以說(shuō)，這真的很有挑戰(zhàn)，就你要投資的個(gè)體公司而言，你應(yīng)該是一個(gè)專家，但是對(duì)于整體的商業(yè)你要有廣泛的認(rèn)知，這樣你的認(rèn)知能力圈和核心競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力才可以不斷的拓展增強(qiáng)。

If I still really know what I knew when I started, when I first took your class, where would you first invest with, we will not really have anywhere near the results, and we both enjoyed，so luckily that, that we continue to expand, and we continue to learn.But on the other hand, it is a fascinating to see that how business evolved over the last few decades will continue to evolve in the next few decades and that really makes me feel that boy, I’m lucky to choose this field that I get paid to, really satisfy my curiosity and to learn from all these great people and great enterprises serving society, so I feel happy everyday doing what I do.

我在最開始學(xué)習(xí)和實(shí)踐投資的時(shí)候，其實(shí)沒有達(dá)到這樣的程度，但是幸運(yùn)的是我們一直在路上，一直在持續(xù)學(xué)習(xí)。這樣的過程其實(shí)也是非常美好的，你可以親歷過去幾十年商業(yè)社會(huì)的發(fā)展，并且在未來(lái)繼續(xù)見證，這讓我非常慶幸于自己對(duì)于投資職業(yè)的選擇。這也是為什么我每天都很享受于工作的原因，我不僅獲得財(cái)務(wù)回報(bào)，還滿足了好奇心，還能跟各行各業(yè)的優(yōu)秀人才學(xué)習(xí)。

OK, so in terms of value investing education you actually played a big role in promoting and advocating value investing from the books to actually underwrote this class that we talked about where I went to Beijing University, and I think it still survives. What’s your vision for the kind of education that a new investor should embrace and where that education might be available?

接下來(lái)想問問你關(guān)于價(jià)值投資領(lǐng)域的教育。其實(shí)你也在積極的倡導(dǎo)和支持價(jià)值投資的理論傳播。包括你也一直在支持北京大學(xué)價(jià)值投資的課程。從你的角度看，對(duì)于新投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，應(yīng)該如何去學(xué)習(xí)和了解價(jià)值投資呢？

Well, first of all, thank you, Bruce, for come to teach at the Beijing University value investing class that my colleague Jin Chang and I started 6 years ago, and now is 6 years and still running, and running very well. And you have played an important role to that.

首先，非常感謝您曾來(lái)北京大學(xué)教授價(jià)值投資的課程。這門課程是我和我的同事常勁六年前發(fā)起的。現(xiàn)在六年時(shí)間過去了，課程進(jìn)行的很好。

（2015年李錄先生在北大講授價(jià)值投資課）

I think our original inspiration for that class was really based on pretty much your class. And your class is pretty much inspired and the continuation of the Ben Graham"s class, and Graham and Dodd, and which had among others, Warren Buffett as a student, and I"m your student. There will be many more, much brighter investors coming after us, and that"s a good thing. So we"re trying to do our part, to really to pass on the philosophy, the thinking, and the practical parts of value investing, to the next generation, in a sense.

您對(duì)于這個(gè)課程的設(shè)立其實(shí)有著至關(guān)重要的作用，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)課程設(shè)計(jì)的最初啟發(fā)，就源于您在哥大的課程。您的課程是本杰明格雷厄姆教授經(jīng)典課程的延續(xù)與傳承。格雷厄姆教授的眾多優(yōu)秀弟子中，有巴菲特這樣的著名學(xué)生；而我是您的學(xué)生。之后，會(huì)有更多更聰明的投資新星，將從我們這里繼續(xù)薪火相傳。這是一個(gè)好事情，所以我們盡自己的綿薄之力，把我們的想法、我們的認(rèn)知以及我們?cè)趯?shí)踐當(dāng)中所學(xué)到的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教授給新的投資者，教給下一代。我們希望盡自己的綿薄之力把我們的價(jià)值投資的理念、認(rèn)知以及實(shí)踐當(dāng)中所學(xué)到的經(jīng)驗(yàn)傳承給下一代。

So, in terms of a younger student, when you started today, so I think a few things will be important. When I talk to young students and people who started out, trying to get into the field, I say several things that is important.

而對(duì)于年輕剛剛起步的學(xué)生來(lái)講，應(yīng)該考慮如下幾個(gè)重要的點(diǎn)。這也是我一直給想進(jìn)入投資領(lǐng)域的年輕人和年輕學(xué)生說(shuō)的。

You need to always adopt a owner"s mentality. And so I like to really ask a young student or an analyst at our firm basically to imagine, all of a sudden that one of your unknown uncle died and handed over 100% ownership to the company to you, and that"s the business you are going to study, so any company, think of the starting point that way.And once you really, kind of, think on your own 100% that way, your mentality is totally different.

首先，你需要有一種所有人意識(shí)。我會(huì)經(jīng)常問年輕的學(xué)生或者我們公司新的分析師這個(gè)問題：假設(shè)你有個(gè)從未謀面的遠(yuǎn)房叔叔突然去世了，他公司百分之百的的股權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)交到了你的手上。這就是你需要去研究的公司，任何公司我認(rèn)為都是要從這個(gè)起點(diǎn)出發(fā)去了解研究的。一旦你認(rèn)識(shí)到你對(duì)一個(gè)公司有著全部的股權(quán)，你的心態(tài)會(huì)完全不一樣。

So you never know that business existed, now you own 100% of it. You have no idea how to run it. You don’t know the people who will run it. What do you do? A lot of the things you know, you don"t understand. You just know the facts, you don"t understand it, but that"s ok, you are gonna continue to learn, until you get 100% of it.

此前，你根本不知道這個(gè)公司的存在，但現(xiàn)在你卻100%擁有了全部股權(quán)——雖然你還不知道如何經(jīng)營(yíng)這個(gè)公司，對(duì)它的管理團(tuán)隊(duì)也不了解。這種情況下，你會(huì)怎么做？你肯定是想方方面面的能了解多少就了解多少，有的時(shí)候你對(duì)拿到的信息不了解，沒關(guān)系，你可以進(jìn)一步的研究，直到你了解熟悉掌握。

And even if then, because of the constant change, you"re gonna to continue to evolve you knowledge of it. Now if you adopt that mentality, study any businesses, you will have really started the process of becoming a real value investor. So that"s the first thing.

即便是這樣，因?yàn)槭挛锒际窃诓粩嗟刈兓模阅阋惨掷m(xù)的研究和學(xué)習(xí)。現(xiàn)在，如果你能具備這樣的所有人意識(shí)，再來(lái)研究任何的公司，你就能在價(jià)值投資者的道路上走得更好。這是第一點(diǎn)。

The second thing is you really want to maintain intellectual honesty and that is very very very important. You have to be really honest of what you know, what you assume, what you pretend unsubconsciously, and what you don’t know, how do you really know that.

第二點(diǎn)，你需要保持對(duì)知識(shí)的誠(chéng)實(shí)的態(tài)度。知之為知之，不知為不知，一定要誠(chéng)實(shí)，這一點(diǎn)非常非常重要。你必須誠(chéng)實(shí)地面對(duì)自己所知道的，所假設(shè)的，潛意識(shí)里假裝知道的，以及不知道的事物。你是怎么知道這些呢？

One of the things that Charlie have talked about that I think make the most sense is that I"m never entitled to have a view, until I can find the smartest people on the planet who took the other side of that view and I can argue better that opposition than he does, and when I can do that, I would be entitled to have a view. Same thing applies to investing in a sense that, that intellectual honesty is a good life philosophy to begin with. It is critical, it is vital when it comes to investment.

查理·芒格曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過一個(gè)我認(rèn)為很有道理的觀點(diǎn)，除非我找到地球上最聰明的同時(shí)與我持有不同觀點(diǎn)的人，并且能辯過他；否則我就無(wú)權(quán)發(fā)表觀點(diǎn)。當(dāng)我能做到這一點(diǎn)，我才有權(quán)擁有一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)。理性誠(chéng)實(shí)是很重要的人生哲理，在投資領(lǐng)域也是必不可少的。

Because as I said, the security market always exists to a point, to really to find your weaknesses, your dishonesty, your pretension, your bushy-mushy knowledges, and if you do not really possess that fundamental attitude of intellectual honesty, you"ll be destroyed at some point during this, during your career by the financial market. It was always designed that way to catch you.

證券市場(chǎng)的存在幾乎就是為了找到人的弱點(diǎn)，人的不誠(chéng)實(shí)，人的自命不凡以及急躁而又糊涂的觀點(diǎn)。如果不具備理性誠(chéng)實(shí)的人生態(tài)度，那么你在職業(yè)生涯中的某個(gè)時(shí)候會(huì)被金融市場(chǎng)摧毀。金融市場(chǎng)幾乎就是為攻擊人性的弱點(diǎn)而設(shè)計(jì)的。

Can I, can I say something about that, because It was better designed that way. Every time you buy a security, thinking it"s going to do well, somebody else is selling you that security thinking it"s going to do bad, and vice versa. And one of you is always wrong. So you better be sure that you"re the one that"s on the right side of that transaction.

我能說(shuō)兩句嗎？我覺得金融市場(chǎng)要好于你認(rèn)為的設(shè)計(jì)路徑。每次你在投資的時(shí)候覺得這個(gè)股票絕對(duì)是好的才會(huì)買，但是賣方在賣出的時(shí)候肯定是覺得這個(gè)股票不行了才賣，反之亦然。所以其中一方肯定是想錯(cuò)了。所以你必須要確保在交易的買賣雙方當(dāng)中你是對(duì)的那一方。

Well, it is, there is some zero-sum aspect, but not always.

好吧，這里有一點(diǎn)零和博弈的味道，不過并不是每個(gè)交易都是這樣的。

Oh, no, it"s a hundred percent zero-sum. The average return to all investors in any asset class and therefore in all all asset classes, is the average return to all those assets, it brings out ...

不不不，我認(rèn)為證券市場(chǎng)是百分之百的零和市場(chǎng)。任意資產(chǎn)類別中所有投資者的平均回報(bào)，也就是所有資產(chǎn)類別中所有投資者的平均回報(bào)，就是所有這些資產(chǎn)的平均回報(bào)。

I just take a slight different view, but I"m never going to argue against my professors.

你的觀點(diǎn)和我的有些不一樣，但是我不會(huì)和您，我的教授爭(zhēng)辯的。

I’m just gonna say…

我就是想說(shuō)……

Let’s just agree to disagree. That’s OK. It’s a fair point. It is a fair point. Another thing I would say is that you want to really devote as much time as possible to study the history of the businesses, and the history of the great businessmen in the past. The more you study more companies, the better you are when it comes to judgement on good opportunities and the judgment about fundamental characteristics of the company of interest.

在這個(gè)問題上，我們就保持各自不同的觀點(diǎn)，求同存異吧。您講的確實(shí)也很有道理。

第三點(diǎn)就是要全身心的投入去研究這個(gè)公司的過往，包括成功的商人過去的一些歷史經(jīng)歷。你研究學(xué)習(xí)的越多，你在決策的時(shí)候就判斷的更準(zhǔn)，更容易抓住好的機(jī)會(huì)，而且更加能夠把握好你感興趣公司的基本面特征。

And so, I say all three things are important:

1. to start with the 100% owner mentality,

2. to continue to train yourself to have a high degree of intellectual honesty,

3.and lastly to be really a thorough student of the history of the businesses.

All three things are really going to be very helpful if you are beginning to get into the field of investment or you want to really improve your game. So that"s my advice to the students.

這三點(diǎn)都非常重要：

首先，要鍛煉自己保持百分之百的所有人心態(tài)，

第二，一定要訓(xùn)練自己保持百分百對(duì)知識(shí)誠(chéng)實(shí)的態(tài)度，

第三，一定要保持不斷學(xué)習(xí)的心態(tài)，去徹底了解這個(gè)公司的過往和方方面面。

如果你剛剛進(jìn)入到價(jià)值投資的領(lǐng)域，或者你純粹就是為了提升自己的投資水準(zhǔn)學(xué)習(xí)，所有這些都能夠幫助到你。這就是我對(duì)年輕學(xué)生們的建議。

That"s good advice. I"m not going to argue with that.

非常好的建議，我完全同意。

When you look back over your own career, are there things that whether at Columbia Business School or in your career since then, you would have done differently that would have helped you get to where you are today sort of more quickly and more easily?

回望您個(gè)人的發(fā)展路程，包括在哥大學(xué)商學(xué)院以及后來(lái)的職業(yè)生涯，有沒有什么事情你今天會(huì)做法不同的？

Yeah well, when I look back, I feel extraordinarily lucky and I feel nothing but gratitude. I feel lucky to accidentally stepped into Buffett"s lecture at your class basically, at the first time he came. I feel extraordinarily lucky that when I got into the business and that I stroke up a relationship with Mr. Charlie Munger. I feel extraordinarily fortunate to live in a period of time when both the United States and China are going through a fundamental economic growth and provide enormous amount of opportunity that I happen to really know both markets well. And so, I look back at my career, I feel nothing but gratitude.

回看過去，我覺得自己超級(jí)幸運(yùn)，并充滿感恩：

我非常幸運(yùn)地偶然在您的課上遇到了巴菲特先生，這還是他第一次來(lái)哥大演講。

我非常幸運(yùn)地進(jìn)入投資行業(yè)，并和能和查理·芒格先生建立緊密的關(guān)系。

更幸運(yùn)的是，我所在的時(shí)代，中國(guó)和美國(guó)都在經(jīng)歷著巨大的的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，這樣的發(fā)展也給我們帶來(lái)了非常多的機(jī)遇，而我剛好對(duì)兩邊的市場(chǎng)都比較了解。

因此，回望過去的職業(yè)路徑，我沒有什么后悔的，我都是充滿了感恩之心。

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